Is President Biden's Re-Election Bid in Trouble After Debate? UBS Analysts Weigh In
President Biden's lackluster performance in the recent debate with Donald Trump has raised concerns within the Democratic party. Despite calls for him to step aside, Biden remains determined to seek re-election. However, his national poll numbers have declined, with a recent survey showing him trailing Trump by 5-6 points.
UBS strategists believe Biden's path to a second term was already narrow before the debate, and they are eagerly awaiting new state-by-state polls. Until Biden makes a final decision, speculation on hypothetical matchups with Trump and other contenders is premature. Both parties are expected to focus on voter turnout as the key to the election's outcome.
UBS has adjusted its election outcome odds, now predicting a 45% chance of a "red sweep" where Trump wins with a Republican Congress. The likelihood of a Biden victory with a divided Congress is at 30%, while Trump winning with a divided Congress is at 15%. A "blue sweep" with Biden and a Democratic Congress has a 10% chance.
In conclusion, the upcoming election remains unpredictable, with voter turnout playing a crucial role. Biden's debate performance has raised doubts about his re-election prospects, but the final outcome will depend on a variety of factors. Stay tuned for more updates as the race unfolds.