US and Global Market Analysis: Is Disinflation Resuming?
As investors shift focus from election risk to borrowing costs, all eyes are on Thursday's US consumer price update for June. The headline rate is expected to fall to 3.1%, while 'core' rates remain at 3.4%. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's testimony will provide insight into the situation, with markets looking for clues on the labor market and GDP estimates.
Recent data shows inflation expectations softening, with oil prices stabilizing after a hurricane in Texas. Small business confidence and record high US stock indexes signal optimism, with Fed funds futures pricing in rate cuts for the year. Debt sales and updates on political developments add to the market's complexity.
Overall, the outlook is cautiously positive, with key events shaping market direction. Stay informed!