Turkey's Inflation Data Controversy Explained by Expert Investment Manager
In a recent statement, the head of Turkey's statistics institute defended the accuracy of the country's inflation data amidst growing criticism. Erhan Cetinkaya reassured reporters that Turkey's inflation figures are calculated using standard methods, dismissing concerns as "unjust."
The controversy began earlier this year when the Statistical Institute (TUIK) faced credibility issues due to a lack of historical price data. Additionally, recent data showing a decrease in annual inflation raised eyebrows, with some questioning the reliability of the numbers.
Despite these concerns, Cetinkaya emphasized that inflation calculations are based on a comprehensive dataset of over 600,000 prices. He also clarified that the decision to withhold historical price data was due to the time-consuming nature of updating product prices.
While some experts, including former central bank economist Hakan Kara, have criticized TUIK's handling of the data, others have noted improvements in accuracy since a shift in economic policy in June 2023. Cetinkaya highlighted that Turkey's inflation data aligns closely with global standards and that perceived inflation among Turks is double the official figure.
In response to rising prices, the central bank has raised its policy rate significantly to combat inflation. The latest data suggests a downward trend in inflation, although certain price increases may impact future figures.
In conclusion, while Turkey's inflation data has faced scrutiny, experts believe that recent measures have improved accuracy. Understanding these economic indicators is crucial for making informed investment decisions and navigating the financial landscape effectively.