The Ultimate Analysis: How JD Vance as Trump's Running Mate Could Impact the Election
In a recent report by Strategas analysts, it was warned that Donald Trump's selection of JD Vance as his running mate could potentially backfire, causing harm rather than help to his chances in the upcoming election. Despite Trump's current momentum, which includes a debate win against President Biden and surviving an assassination attempt, Strategas pointed out that Biden's approval rating had been rising before the shooting. Additionally, Trump did not see a significant increase in the polls post-debate.
While vice-presidential selections typically do not have a major impact on elections, they are more likely to hurt than help a candidate when they do. With aging candidates and the recent assassination attempt, voters are particularly concerned about whether the vice-presidential candidate is ready to assume the presidency if needed.
The Trump campaign believes that Vance will attract rural and exurban voters, solidifying the electoral college. However, Strategas remains skeptical, noting that Vance underperformed in the 2022 election and required substantial financial support. They also suggest that Vance and Trump appeal to the same voter base, potentially limiting Trump's ability to expand his support.
Strategas emphasizes the opportunity cost of selecting Vance, stating that it prevented Trump from being able to break through his support ceiling. This is crucial because Trump did not reach a new polling high after Biden's poor performance in the June 27 debate, where a sitting president typically sees a 1.5 percent loss.
In conclusion, Strategas analysts believe that JD Vance as Trump's running mate is unlikely to provide a boost to secure the election and may even hinder Trump's campaign by failing to expand his voter base.
Analysis Breakdown:
- Trump's choice of JD Vance as his running mate may backfire, potentially harming his chances in the upcoming election.
- Vice-presidential selections generally do not have a significant impact on elections, but they can hurt a candidate when they do.
- Trump's campaign believes Vance will attract rural and exurban voters, but Strategas is skeptical.
- Vance underperformed in the 2022 election and appeals to the same voter base as Trump, potentially limiting his support.
- The opportunity cost of selecting Vance prevented Trump from breaking through his support ceiling.
- Strategas analysts believe that Vance is unlikely to boost Trump's campaign and may hinder his chances of winning the election.