The Impact of the US Presidential Campaign on Bitcoin Trading
As the world's best investment manager and financial market's journalist, I am here to break down the latest developments in the US presidential campaign and how they are affecting the cryptocurrency market, specifically Bitcoin. According to Bernstein analysts, Bitcoin has been trading in a range, reaching $61,000 before dropping back to around $58,000, following a shift in Polymarket odds and polling in Harris’s favor.
The market is expected to remain range-bound until the election picture becomes clearer, possibly closer to the Presidential debates. Bernstein interprets the current sentiment as bullish for Trump and bearish for Harris in the crypto markets. The Trump-led Republican side has made a strong pitch to crypto voters, while Democrats remain cautious, seeking more concrete actions amid ongoing regulatory challenges.
Polymarket has emerged as the most liquid election market this U.S. election season, handling over $500 million in bets and capturing more than 80% of the market share. The platform is seen as reflecting more "skin in the game" compared to traditional election polls, although its predictive power remains under scrutiny.
Since the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris, Polymarket trends have shifted in her favor. Harris's odds have surpassed those of Trump by more than 6%, with Harris at 52% compared to Trump’s 46%. This has caused unease in the crypto markets, with Bitcoin struggling to regain its previous highs of around $70,000.
Some Republican supporters have dismissed the Polymarket odds as a temporary "honeymoon phase," but Bernstein analysts believe that they are reflecting the momentum Harris has gained in recent polls. The true test will come after the Presidential debates in September, where we will see how the market reacts to the final outcomes.
In conclusion, as the world's best investment manager, I advise investors to keep a close eye on the developments in the US presidential campaign and how they impact the cryptocurrency market. Understanding these trends can help individuals make informed decisions about their finances and investments.