Goldman Sachs Reveals Latest Insights on US Presidential Race: Harris Holds Slight Lead
In a recent note, Goldman Sachs political economists highlighted that the presidential race in the United States is now neck and neck, with Vice President Harris holding a slight national lead. Recent polling data shows Harris leading by approximately 3 percentage points, but long-term averages suggest a closer race.
Key swing states have seen Harris's standing improve, with about 100 electoral votes now evenly split within 2 percentage points. Pennsylvania remains the "tipping point", where Trump leads Harris by only 0.2 percentage points.
As more polls are released, additional states are expected to shift towards a narrow Democratic lead, especially with the convention bounce historically worth around 2 percentage points. However, further gains for Democrats may be limited as much of the recent change has come from third-party supporters and undecided voters.
Despite the apparent turn in polls, there is still uncertainty surrounding the level of support due to significant polling errors in the past two presidential elections. Harris has made progress but still lags behind President Biden's position in the 2020 race and is closer to where Secretary Clinton was in 2016.
Economists also note that the shift in the presidential race has had a limited impact on the congressional outlook. The national "generic ballot" for the House shows a narrow Democratic advantage of 0.8 percentage points, while the pivotal Senate seat is in Montana with a 2 percentage point Republican lead.
Prediction markets now favor a Harris victory with a divided government, most likely a Republican Senate and Democratic House. This scenario is seen as the most probable, compared to a Republican sweep or a Democratic sweep.
In conclusion, the US presidential race is heating up with Vice President Harris holding a slight lead over President Trump. The outcome of this race could have significant implications for the future direction of the country's economy and policies. Stay tuned for more updates as the race unfolds.