Breaking News: Goldman Sachs Predicts Kamala Harris Victory in Upcoming Election with Divided Government
According to Goldman Sachs economists, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading former President Donald Trump by 1.5 percentage points in national polling averages. Prediction markets suggest a 52-54% chance of Harris winning in November, with a slight edge in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania.
Since August 1, the odds of a Republican victory in the White House have decreased by 10 percentage points, while the likelihood of a Republican sweep has fallen by 4 percentage points. On the other hand, the chances of a Democratic divided government, with Harris winning and Republicans controlling one or both houses of Congress, have increased by 11 percentage points.
Despite Trump's favorability staying around 43%, Harris has seen an increase in favorability by 8 points to 45% and her approval rating rise by 3 points to 41%. Goldman Sachs economists highlight that this is now the most likely implied scenario, although the outcome remains uncertain.
As the Democratic Party convention progresses, economists suggest that convention bounces typically average around 2 percentage points in recent years. However, Harris's growing support ahead of the convention may result in a smaller bounce.
Looking ahead, the first Harris-Trump debate is scheduled for September 10, with the vice-presidential debate set for October 1. Stay tuned for updates as the election season unfolds.
In conclusion, the outcome of the upcoming election could have significant implications for financial markets and policies. It is crucial for investors to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate potential changes in leadership and governance.