Survey Shows VP Kamala Harris Favored Over Trump in Upcoming U.S. Presidential Election
A recent survey conducted by Evercore ISI revealed a shift in expectations for the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The survey, which gathered responses from nearly 350 participants during a Macro & Fundamental webinar, showed that Vice President Kamala Harris was chosen more frequently than Donald Trump as the likely winner in November.
Harris attracted 50% of responses compared to 29% for Trump. Additionally, 21% of respondents expect that the outcome of the election will not be clear by 11/7, two days after election day.
Analysts commented on the survey results, stating that the race had completely changed after the Republican convention ended. They anticipate the Democrats receiving a traditional post-convention bump in the polls, but believe that post-Labor Day will provide a clearer picture of the race, which they still consider a toss-up.
In addition to the election insights, the survey also highlighted mixed forecasts for AI infrastructure spending. While 34% of respondents expect a moderation in spending in the second half of 2025, another 34% anticipate a deceleration after that period. Meanwhile, 32% predict a slowdown before the second half of 2025.
Regarding stock performance, 57% of survey participants believe that NVIDIA (NASDAQ:) will close between $120 and $140 on August 29, following its earnings report on August 28. The survey also touched on broader market expectations, with 79% of investors predicting that the will close within a 5% range of its current level by September 30.
This data is crucial for investors as September is traditionally considered the weakest and most volatile month for the stock market.
In conclusion, the survey results indicate a shifting landscape in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with VP Kamala Harris currently favored over Donald Trump. Additionally, insights into AI infrastructure spending and stock performance provide valuable information for investors looking to make informed decisions in the current market climate.