Title: Trump Maintains Lead Over Harris in Tight Election Race, AlpineMacro Analysts Suggest
Investing.com -- According to top financial analysts at AlpineMacro, the upcoming election remains a close race, but Donald Trump is still in the lead, with a stronger chance of winning than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite the narrowing gap in polls, AlpineMacro continues to believe that Trump has the edge in this election.
Reportedly, Trump is performing better than he did in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in national and swing-state polls, where he was previously underestimated.
The competition remains fierce, with both candidates neck and neck, making it a challenging situation for Harris, who is seen as a "quasi-incumbent."
AlpineMacro acknowledges Harris' unexpected strength as a candidate, leading in national polls and closing the gap in swing states. This has caused the firm to revise its prediction of Trump's chances of winning from 60% to 55%.
Additionally, AlpineMacro predicts that the most likely outcomes of the election are either a Trump presidency with a split Congress (35%) or a Harris presidency with a split Congress (35%). They give higher odds to a Republican sweep (20%) than a Democratic one (10%).
As the election approaches, the focus will shift towards political developments and key economic indicators, according to AlpineMacro.
The firm concludes that as post-Labor Day polling becomes more accurate, if Harris' numbers continue to rise, she could become the favorite in the race.
In their analysis of global financial markets, AlpineMacro highlights increasing challenges, with the risk of recession on the rise after 28 months of tight monetary policy. They also point out that the bull market in big tech is reaching unsustainable levels and may be due for a correction.
On the flip side, they mention that inflation has decreased significantly, and the Fed is likely to introduce measures to ease the economic situation amid escalating political and geopolitical risks.
In summary, this article provides insights into the current state of the election race between Trump and Harris, as well as the potential impact on financial markets. It highlights the importance of staying informed about political developments and economic indicators as the election draws near, as these factors could have significant implications for individuals' lives and finances.