The Ultimate Guide to Navigating the EV Market Under the Biden Administration
The Biden administration's environmental agenda has propelled electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S., with EV penetration skyrocketing from 2.5% in 2020 to 10% in 2024 year-to-date, as per Bernstein. However, recent months have witnessed a slowdown in EV growth, raising concerns about meeting emissions targets set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Bernstein analysts suggest that while a Democratic White House is likely to uphold current policies, the slowdown underscores the potential need for additional support or more realistic target-setting. Without action, established automakers could face penalties for non-compliance.
On the other hand, Bernstein predicts that a Republican administration would aim to reverse the Biden administration's EV policies, although this would require significant political support and could face legal challenges. Changes to EPA policy, particularly regarding 2027 emission targets, could still have a significant impact on the EV landscape.
In response to this policy uncertainty, Bernstein outlines three key priorities for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Automakers should focus on technological leadership, flexibility in technology and manufacturing plans, and making EVs more affordable.
Among major automakers, Stellantis is seen as the most adaptable to potential outcomes of the U.S. election, with its flexible platform approach and global footprint. General Motors is expected to benefit under a Democratic administration due to its ambitious BEV strategy, while Ford might fare better in a Republican scenario by adjusting its BEV strategy.
In summary, the EV market is rapidly evolving under the Biden administration's environmental agenda, with implications for automakers and investors alike. Understanding the impact of political policies on the EV landscape is crucial for navigating the market and making informed investment decisions.