Alpine Macro Analysis: Kamala Harris Wins Debate, But Trump Still Favored for Presidency
In a recent note, Alpine Macro declared Kamala Harris as the winner of the September 10 debate. Despite this, the firm maintains that Donald Trump is still the favorite in the race for the presidency.
While Harris delivered a strong performance, Alpine Macro believes that her victory is unlikely to sway many voters. The debate, watched by 67 million people, did not significantly change the dynamics of the race, especially for centrists and independents.
Harris struggled to outline a clear governing agenda, particularly on key issues like the economy, immigration, crime, and inflation. On the other hand, Trump, although not performing well, is seen as having his candidate liabilities already factored in by voters.
Polling numbers remain close, with Harris trailing behind Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump is also outperforming his previous polling figures. Alpine Macro estimates Trump's chances of winning at 55%, slightly higher than the consensus for Harris at 50-60%.
The firm emphasizes that the upcoming week's polling trends will be crucial. If Harris fails to gain momentum, Trump's position as the favorite will remain unchanged.
In terms of markets, Alpine Macro notes that despite the debate, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17-18. However, post-Fed decision, markets are expected to shift attention towards the electoral race, including congressional races.
In conclusion, while Harris may have won the debate, Trump still holds an edge in the presidential race according to Alpine Macro's analysis. The upcoming polling trends will be key in determining the final outcome. Investors should keep an eye on market reactions as the election draws closer.