Alpine Macro Analysis: Kamala Harris Wins Debate, But Trump Still Favored for Presidency
In a recent note, Alpine Macro declared Kamala Harris as the winner of the September 10 debate, despite maintaining that Donald Trump remains the front-runner in the presidential race. While Harris delivered a strong performance, her victory is unlikely to sway many voters, especially centrists and independents.
The debate, watched by 67 million people, did not significantly impact the dynamics of the race according to Alpine Macro. Harris struggled to outline a clear governing agenda on key issues like the economy, immigration, crime, and inflation. On the other hand, Trump, despite a lackluster performance, benefits from his well-known liabilities that are priced in by voters.
Polling numbers show a tight race, with Harris lagging behind Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump is outperforming his previous polling figures, giving him a slight edge in the race with a 55% chance of winning, compared to the consensus of 50-60% for Harris.
Alpine Macro emphasizes that the upcoming week's polling trends will be crucial. If Harris fails to gain momentum, Trump's position as the favorite will remain unchanged. Despite the debate, markets have largely ignored the election, with focus on the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17-18. Post the Fed's decision, attention will shift towards the electoral race and congressional races.
In conclusion, the analysis from Alpine Macro suggests that while Harris may have won the debate, Trump still holds the edge in the presidential race. Investors should keep an eye on the polling trends in the coming weeks to gauge the potential impact on financial markets.