Alpine Macro Analysis: Kamala Harris Wins Debate, But Trump Still Favorite for Presidency
In a recent note, Alpine Macro declared Kamala Harris as the winner of the September 10 debate. Despite her strong performance, the firm maintains that Donald Trump is still the frontrunner in the presidential race.
Although Harris impressed with her preparedness and delivery, Alpine Macro believes her victory won't sway many voters. The debate, watched by 67 million people, did not significantly change the race dynamics, especially for centrists and independents.
Harris struggled to communicate a clear governing agenda, especially on key issues like the economy, immigration, crime, and inflation. On the other hand, Trump's known liabilities are already factored into voters' opinions, while Harris' weaknesses are yet to be fully realized.
Polls show a tight race, but Harris' numbers are weaker compared to past Democratic candidates. Trump is also outperforming his previous polling figures, giving him a slight edge with a 55% chance of winning, according to Alpine Macro.
The firm emphasizes that the upcoming week's polling trends will be crucial. If Harris fails to gain momentum, Trump will maintain his slight lead.
In terms of market impact, Alpine Macro notes that despite the debate, markets have largely ignored the election, focusing instead on the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. After the Fed's decision, attention will shift to the electoral race, including congressional contests.
In conclusion, while Harris may have won the debate, Trump still holds the upper hand in the presidential race. Investors should keep a close eye on polling trends and market reactions as the election approaches to make informed financial decisions.