Conservative Shift in Brazilian Municipal Elections Signals Potential Impact on 2026 Presidential Race
By Anthony Boadle
In Sunday's municipal elections in Brazil, centrist and center-right parties emerged victorious, consolidating their control over city halls and town councils. This trend highlights a shift towards conservatism in the country's electorate, as the ruling Workers Party faced losses.
The race for mayor of Sao Paulo ended in a photo finish, setting up a runoff between incumbent conservative Ricardo Nunes and leftist Guilherme Boulos on Oct. 27. Far-right digital influencer Pablo Marçal narrowly missed out on the opportunity to compete in the runoff.
Candidates aligned with former hard-right President Jair Bolsonaro outperformed those supported by leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party secured victories in two state capitals and advanced to runoff elections in nine cities.
However, it was the Brazilian "Centrao" parties, comprising center and center-right factions linked to influential politicians like House Speaker Arthur Lira, that secured the majority of mayoral seats.
Incumbent mayors prevailed in half of the state capitals in the initial round of voting, benefiting conservative parties that have weathered corruption scandals and economic challenges shaping Brazilian politics in recent years.
The contentious Sao Paulo mayoral race, marked by a televised debate where one candidate attacked another with a chair, showcased a strong anti-establishment sentiment among Brazilian voters. This sentiment could play a pivotal role in the upcoming 2026 presidential race.
Lula, facing dwindling popularity during his third non-consecutive term, is expected to seek re-election. Bolsonaro, barred from running for office until 2030 due to his unfounded attacks on Brazil's voting system while in office, remains a prominent figure in Brazilian politics.
While local elections serve as a precursor to national races, the focus of Sunday's vote was primarily on local issues and personalities.
Noteworthy regional leaders who gained political momentum include Para Governor Helder Barbalho, House Speaker Lira in Alagoas, ACM Neto in Bahia, and Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, whose mayoral candidates emerged victorious.
Freitas, considered the leading figure of the Brazilian right and a potential successor to Bolsonaro, may be eyeing a presidential bid in the future, although he is likely to seek re-election as governor in 2026.