In the intricate world of commodity markets, particularly gold futures, an intriguing scenario has unfolded, showcasing a market in a critical phase of compression. Currently, gold futures are being traded at $3,381.7. This price point emerges following a slight decline from an earlier peak on August 7, which was marked at $3,534.1. A keen observation of the market dynamics reveals a remarkably narrow trading range between $3,375 and $3,385. This persistent refusal of the market to breach below certain key support levels – namely the Daily Buy 1 at $3,376 and the Weekly Buy 1 at $3,350 – illustrates a resilient demand base. However, it’s also evident that any attempts to rally are consistently capped by resistance at the Daily Sell 1–2 levels, which lie between $3,393 and $3,402, thereby engendering a short-term limbo.
This market compression scenario is far from arbitrary. Intriguingly, it coincides with the concluding phase of a 360-day Gann cycle that initially took root on September 28, 2024. We find ourselves positioned merely six weeks away from a major cyclical juncture anticipated on September 28, 2025. The fascinating interplay of time and price here suggests that the market is undergoing its final basing phase, poised for a pivotal shift.
Exploring further into the granularities, the Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) presents an insightful equilibrium battleground for this period. The specified $3,368–$3,402 price band represents an equilibrium fulcrum where the influences of both daily and weekly dynamics converge. Such coiling action within this range is emblematic of what’s known as a ‘mean-reversion compression’, a situation that, statistically, precedes a phase of volatility expansion. The forthcoming directional move beyond this range is likely to set a definitive trajectory for the cycle window in late September.
Diving deeper into the Gann 360-day cycle theory illuminates this phenomenon further. This cycle theory, anchored from September 28, 2024, unfolds through distinct harmonic divisions, each marking significant milestones in the market’s journey. As we advance into Day 321 of the 360-day cycle, the volatility anticipated in this final quadrant underscores the cycles’ propensity towards seeking resolution at the completion of the 360° phase. Past patterns suggest an elevated probability for a major trend adjustment or intensification as we approach late September.
Remarkably, the Square of 9 technique—when applied from the August 7 high and the retracement low near $3,375—uncovers a potent harmonic cluster. This analysis projects critical price targets and supports harmonics that act as natural “price ladders” for scaling profits on a successful breakout.
Looking ahead into the October–November 2025 window, cycle analysis paired with Square of 9 harmonics indicates a ripe environment for a substantial breakout, assuming the $3,350–$3,368 foundation remains robust. Immediately following the 360° pivot on September 28, the market is anticipated to venture into the 405° and 450° extensions, potentially carrying trend momentum further beyond the initial pivot.
Market sentiment, as reflected by indicators like MACD, suggests a latent bullish energy, ready to spring forth. The current market psychology, fraught with short-term skepticism, might be underestimating the breakout potential aligned with the cycle’s culmination.
From a strategic perspective, should the market’s close surpass the $3,402 mark, it could ignite a rally towards $3,441–$3,467, eventually paving the way for an expansion toward the $3,523–$3,582 region, in line with the Square of 9 projections. Conversely, a dip below $3,350 would not only negate this bullish cycle bias but also potentially delay the anticipated breakout and risk further downturns.
In essence, as gold teeters on the edge of the final arc of a 360-day Gann cycle, it’s coiled within a pivotal $3,368–$3,402 equilibrium band. This juncture embodies a classic time-price compression scenario, with the odds favouring a significant breakout in alignment with the cycle’s completion come September 28, 2025. Should the $3,350 base endure, a bullish rally sequence towards and possibly beyond $3,523 by the fourth quarter seems not just plausible, but strongly supported by both cyclical and harmonic analyses.
In conclusion, the tapestry of these market dynamics, methodically analyzed through the lens of Gann cycle theory and VC PMI alignment, heralds a period of high anticipation and potential volatility in the gold futures market, marking an opportunity for astute investors and highlighting the interconnectedness of time, price, and market psychology.
Disclaimer: Trading derivatives, financial instruments, and precious metals involve significant risks of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
