Is the S&P 500 at its peak for 2024? BCA Research thinks so
In a recent analysis, BCA Research strategists suggest that the S&P 500 may have already hit its peak for the year. Despite some recent market rallies that have sparked optimism among investors, BCA's analysts believe that the high watermark has already been set.
The firm's strategists, along with a majority of participants in a roundtable discussion, lean toward the S&P 500's July high remaining the peak for the year. They caution that any rallies in the current trading environment will likely be short-lived.
BCA recommends that investors consider moving out of risky positions and into defensive ones. The firm's conviction that the S&P 500 has peaked is supported by recent economic data, including disappointing manufacturing reports and weak employment figures.
A narrow majority of BCA's roundtable participants now predict a recession within the next twelve months, further adding to the cautionary outlook. While there is a possibility for the S&P 500 to recover some losses with positive economic data, BCA warns that the market's optimism is fragile and not fully adjusted to the ongoing slowdown.
Investors are advised to watch for clear signs of a recession before making any significant changes to their portfolios. It may take until the end of summer for these signs to become apparent, so caution is key in the current market environment.