Goldman Sachs: US Presidential Race Now Neck and Neck, Harris Holds Slight Lead - Latest Polls and Analysis
In a recent note, Goldman Sachs political economists revealed that the presidential race in the United States is now a tight contest, with Vice President Harris holding a slight national lead of approximately 3 percentage points. However, longer-term averages suggest a closer race, with key swing states showing improved support for Harris.
Pennsylvania remains the crucial "tipping point" state, where Trump now leads Harris by only 0.2 percentage points. As more polls are released, additional states are expected to shift towards a narrow Democratic lead, especially as Democrats benefit from a convention bounce.
Despite recent gains, further Democratic progress may be limited as much of the shift has come from third-party supporters and undecided voters. Democrats are now backing their candidate at levels similar to previous elections, but uncertainty remains due to significant polling errors in past presidential elections.
Economists also highlight the potential impact of economic data on the race, noting that voter trust in Harris's handling of the economy has improved. The shift in the presidential race has had a limited effect on the congressional outlook, with a narrow Democratic advantage in the House and a pivotal Senate seat in Montana showing a Republican lead.
Prediction markets now favor a Harris victory with a divided government, most likely a Republican Senate and Democratic House. This scenario is seen as the most probable compared to a Republican sweep or a Democratic sweep. Stay tuned for more updates on this closely contested race.