Kamala Harris Victory Likely in Divided Government, Says Goldman Sachs Economists
In a recent analysis, Goldman Sachs economists predict that Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to win the upcoming election with a divided government. Harris currently leads former President Donald Trump in national polling averages and holds an edge in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state.
The odds of a Republican victory in the White House have decreased, while the likelihood of a Democratic divided government has increased. Harris's favorability has seen an increase, decoupling from President Biden's approval rating.
As the Democratic Party convention progresses, economists note that convention bounces have historically been around 2 percentage points. However, Harris's growing support suggests she may see a smaller bounce.
The economists also highlight that the Democratic Party's fiscal and trade policy agenda is unlikely to shift significantly under Harris. A Trump victory, on the other hand, could bring additional tariffs.
The upcoming debates between Harris and Trump are scheduled for September and October, with the potential addition of a second presidential debate in October.
In conclusion, the analysis suggests that a Harris victory with a divided government could have implications for fiscal and trade policies. It is important for investors and individuals to stay informed about the potential outcomes of the election and how it may impact their finances.