Evercore ISI Survey Reveals Shift in U.S. Election Expectations: Kamala Harris Gaining Momentum Over Trump
In a recent survey conducted by Evercore ISI during a Macro & Fundamental webinar, it was found that Vice President Kamala Harris is now being chosen more frequently as the likely winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election compared to Donald Trump. Harris received 50% of responses, while Trump only garnered 29%. Additionally, 21% of participants believe that the election outcome will not be clear by November 7th.
Analysts noted that the race has shifted significantly since the conclusion of both conventions, with Democrats expected to receive a post-convention bump in the polls. However, the true state of the race will become clearer post-Labor Day, with the electoral college still favoring Republicans.
The survey also highlighted mixed forecasts for AI infrastructure spending, with respondents split on expectations for the second half of 2025. In terms of stock performance, the majority believe that NVIDIA will close between $120 and $140 following its earnings report on August 28.
Furthermore, investors are predicting that the market will close within a 5% range of its current level by September 30th, a crucial period as September is traditionally known as the weakest and most volatile month for the stock market.
In conclusion, these survey results provide valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of the U.S. presidential election, AI infrastructure spending, stock performance, and broader market expectations. Understanding these trends can help investors make informed decisions and navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.