Investing.com - Speculation Grows Over Potential Second Trump Term in 2024
As the 2024 presidential election looms closer, Nomura's recent note has sparked speculation on the likelihood of a second Trump term. Despite Vice President Kamala Harris currently being seen as the frontrunner, the possibility of Trump's return to office remains strong.
Nomura conducted a survey among its clients to gather insights on the expectations for a Trump 2.0 presidency and its potential impacts on U.S. policies, economies, and global markets. According to the findings, investors anticipate a more restrained approach to tariffs under Trump, with expectations of less severe increases than previously proposed.
Tax policy is also expected to continue along the lines of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, with many respondents predicting a full extension of these tax cuts or even additional cuts. Immigration policy is another area where strong action is expected, with predictions of limitations on illegal immigration and stringent controls.
Potential shifts in foreign policy under a second Trump term include the possibility of U.S. withdrawal from NATO and demands for allies to pay for defense protection. Concerns about higher inflation, larger fiscal deficits, and increased geopolitical tensions have also been raised.
Despite these risks, a majority of respondents anticipate higher GDP growth under Trump 2.0, indicating a complex outlook for the U.S. economy and global relations.
In analysis, the potential return of Trump to office in 2024 could have significant implications for various aspects of the economy and global markets. Investors should closely monitor developments and be prepared to adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate potential changes in policies and geopolitical dynamics.