Investing.com Exclusive: U.S. Presidential Race Hinges on September 10 Debate - Citi Analysts
The upcoming September 10 debate could be a game-changer in the U.S. presidential race, especially for Vice President Kamala Harris, as per insights from Citi analysts. Recent polls suggest a tight competition, making the debate critical in shaping voter sentiment.
Key swing state polls by New York Times/Siena and CNN indicate that the election is still up for grabs. While Harris leads nationally by a slim 2 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, securing an electoral college victory may be challenging.
In pivotal swing states, Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, but Trump is ahead in Arizona. The competition is fierce in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The debate will be pivotal for Harris' campaign, with polls and prediction markets reacting strongly to her performance.
Citi underscores that 28% of likely voters are keen to learn more about Harris, compared to only 9% for Trump. The debate presents Harris with an opportunity to sway undecided voters and address critical concerns in closely contested states.
Prediction markets reflect the race's uncertainty, with Harris holding a slight advantage over Trump, although the gap is narrowing. Notably, polling margins in this election cycle are tighter than in 2020, with Harris leading Trump by less than 1 percentage point in swing state aggregations.
In conclusion, Citi highlights that both candidates' proposed policies could increase the deficit compared to the current baseline. The outcome of the September 10 debate could have far-reaching implications for the presidential race, making it a must-watch event for investors and voters alike.