As the world's top investment manager, I bring you exclusive insights into the upcoming election, with Donald Trump leading the race against Vice President Kamala Harris, according to AlpineMacro analysts.
Despite the close competition, Trump is predicted to have the upper hand, outperforming his previous showings in both national and swing-state polls. This makes it "Donald Trump's election to lose," as stated by AlpineMacro.
While Harris has proven to be a strong contender, leading in national polls and closing the gap in swing states, the firm has reduced its projection of Trump winning from 60% to 55%. The most likely outcomes, according to AlpineMacro, are either a Trump presidency with a split Congress or a Harris presidency with a split Congress.
Looking at the broader electoral picture, AlpineMacro predicts higher odds of a Republican sweep compared to a Democratic one. As the election approaches, the focus will shift to political developments and key economic indicators.
On the global financial front, AlpineMacro warns of increasing challenges, with the risk of recession on the rise after 28 months of tight monetary policy. They also note a potential shakeout in the big tech bull market, while inflation has fallen sharply and the Fed is poised to ease amidst escalating political and geopolitical risks.
Analysis:
With the 2024 election heating up, investors should closely monitor the race between Trump and Harris. While Trump currently holds the edge, Harris is gaining ground, making the outcome uncertain. A Trump presidency with a split Congress or a Harris presidency with a split Congress are the most likely scenarios.
Global financial markets are facing challenges, with the risk of recession increasing and the tech sector primed for a correction. Investors should be cautious and consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate risks. Keep an eye on political developments and economic indicators for clues on market direction.