If an election were held now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party would form the largest single party in parliament, according to a recent opinion poll. This surge in support marks a gradual recovery since the attacks last year, with Likud winning 24 seats, its highest score since the attacks. The National Unity Party, led by centrist Benny Gantz, follows closely with 21 seats.
Despite Likud's lead, Netanyahu's right-wing coalition would lose in an election held now, with 53 seats compared to the main opposition bloc's 58. However, the increase in Likud's popularity shows Netanyahu's progress since the security failures last year.
Netanyahu's personal standing as prime minister is also on the rise, with respondents favoring him over other potential candidates. Despite tensions within the coalition and protests demanding action on Gaza hostages, the government has remained intact.
While Likud has seen steady growth, nationalist religious parties Jewish Power and Religious Zionism have not experienced the same increase in support, giving them an incentive to stay in the government. Netanyahu has clashed with some members of his own party, but the coalition remains stable.
Overall, this analysis highlights Netanyahu's improved standing and Likud's growing popularity, despite challenges within the coalition. Investors should monitor these developments as they could impact Israel's political landscape and potentially influence financial markets in the region.