The Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election on China's Economy and Global Standing
The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the main candidates, has significant implications for China's economy and global position. Capital Economics analysts have highlighted the potential outcomes, underscoring the high stakes for China.
In the event of a Trump victory, there could be a resurgence of aggressive trade policies, similar to those seen in his first term. This could lead to further tariffs and economic sanctions, exacerbating China's already fragile economic situation, particularly in export-driven industries. The global economy could also suffer, with a potential contraction in international trade flows.
On the other hand, a Harris presidency may adopt a softer, more multilateral approach towards China, focusing on diplomacy and cooperation. While trade policies and restrictions on technology access are expected to continue, the level of aggression is likely to be lower compared to a Trump administration. Collaboration on global issues like climate change could present mutual benefits.
Both candidates are expected to maintain restrictions on China's access to U.S. technology, but the methods may differ. Trump's confrontational approach could isolate China further, prompting the country to seek new partnerships. In contrast, Harris may engage with China through existing global institutions, working to contain China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
In conclusion, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election could have far-reaching effects on China's economy and global relationships. Understanding these potential scenarios is crucial for investors and individuals alike, as they navigate the changing landscape of international trade and geopolitics.