As the world's best investment manager and financial market's journalist, I bring you the latest updates on Wall Street analysts downgrading their growth forecasts for China, signaling growing concerns over the country's economic trajectory.
Despite Beijing's policy efforts, major investment banks like Citi and Goldman Sachs are increasingly skeptical about China hitting its growth targets for the year. Citi revised its full-year GDP growth forecast for China to 4.7%, down from previous estimates, citing weakening momentum in August data.
Goldman Sachs also lowered its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.7%, down from 4.9%, pointing to disappointing economic activity in August, including slowing industrial production growth and weak retail sales.
Meanwhile, Evercore ISI maintained its 5.0% growth target for China but expressed caution, stating they will only consider lowering it if September data disappoints and Beijing doesn't ramp up support.
Analysts are expecting September to be a pivotal month due to the impact of a 300 billion yuan subsidy package and increased infrastructure investment. However, they also acknowledge the uncertainty that stimulus measures could bring for 2025.
Ultimately, these downgrades in growth forecasts highlight the challenges facing China's economy, particularly in sectors like housing and infrastructure. Investors should pay attention to these developments as they could have significant implications for their portfolios and financial decisions moving forward.