Investing.com - US Presidential Election Impact on Markets: Citi Analysts Analyze Harris vs. Trump Debate Results
As the Federal Reserve interest rate decision looms, markets could shift focus to the closely contested US presidential election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, according to Citi analysts. Recent polls indicate a tight race, with Harris holding a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.
After a fiery debate where the candidates clashed on various issues, including immigration and the economy, Harris was declared the winner by Americans in a post-debate poll conducted by ABC News. However, celebrity endorsements, like Taylor Swift's support for Harris, have had minimal impact on voter preferences.
Citi analysts suggest that Harris's debate performance and endorsements have not translated into a significant lead in the polls. The upcoming election phase will likely see an increase in state-level surveys, voter registrations, and campaign polls. If Harris does not see a significant boost in new data, the race could remain tight, potentially leading traders to price in Trump tariff risks in foreign exchange markets.
Trump's proposed tariffs on imports, including a blanket tariff of up to 20% and additional taxes on goods from China, could impact the US dollar against select currencies. Harris has criticized Trump's tariff plan as a sales tax on everyday goods, although she noted that many tariffs from Trump's first term remain in place under President Joe Biden.
In conclusion, the US presidential election could have implications for financial markets, particularly in terms of trade policies and currency fluctuations. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming election phase and any new data that could impact market sentiment.