JPMorgan Strategists: U.S. Presidential Race Still a Toss-Up, Turnout is Key
In a recent analysis by JPMorgan strategists, the ongoing U.S. presidential race is described as "still a toss-up and a turnout race." The possibility of a divided Congress is still considered likely, with a slim margin of 50,000 to 100,000 votes in key swing states potentially determining the winner.
Vice President Kamala Harris's recent debate performance was seen as a success in swaying undecided voters, though she is not yet considered the clear frontrunner. Despite this, Harris has managed to unite the Democratic Party and strengthen her position as a credible presidential contender.
The strategists note that Harris still has work to do to secure her base, particularly among black men and Silicon Valley supporters. Converting undecided voters remains a key challenge for her campaign.
JPMorgan categorizes undecided persuadable voters into two groups: unlikely voters and "feel voters," who prioritize emotional connections over policy issues. While Harris's debate performance impressed political commentators, it is uncertain whether undecided "feel voters" were equally swayed.
There is also uncertainty surrounding a potential second debate, as Trump has declined to participate. Some commentators see limited benefit and potential risks for Harris in returning to the debate stage.
While a divided Congress is expected, there is less certainty about the House outcome compared to the Senate. House Democrats are leading in fundraising and need to flip only four seats. Opinions differ on the impact of the presidential race on state elections, with some citing Harris's down-ballot appeal in states like New York and California, while others believe state races are independent of national dynamics.
JPMorgan predicts that Senate seats in West Virginia and Montana are likely to flip Republican.
In conclusion, the U.S. presidential race remains highly competitive, with turnout playing a crucial role in determining the outcome. Harris's debate performance has been a significant factor in swaying undecided voters, but she still faces challenges in securing her base of support. The possibility of a divided Congress adds further uncertainty to the political landscape, with differing opinions on the impact of the presidential race on down-ballot elections. Investors should closely monitor these developments as they could have implications for financial markets and economic policies in the future.