Kamala Harris Slightly Favored to Win November Election, Economic Slowdown Could Boost Trump's Chances - BCA Research Analysis
In a recent note to clients, analysts at BCA Research revealed that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is currently favored to win November's election with a 56% probability. However, her Republican rival Donald Trump's chances could improve if economic activity slows significantly before the ballot.
Harris is projected to secure 303 Electoral College votes out of the available 538, surpassing the majority threshold of 270 needed to win. The outcome of the election is expected to heavily rely on swing states, where polling data suggests a close race.
Recent data shows that Harris' odds have increased in 21 states, including the battleground state of Arizona, while her chances in Michigan have declined. The analysts pointed out that Arizona's economy is outperforming the national average, whereas Michigan is experiencing a contraction.
Coincident indices for swing states like Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada have also shown a deceleration in economic activity, making the presidential race tight as the election date approaches. The analysts highlighted that Democrats are facing increasing pressure from the economy.
The recent 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a measure to prevent the economy from cooling too quickly. While the rate cut has boosted the stock market and supported the ruling Democratic party, the analysts cautioned that the situation could change by October.
If the economy continues to weaken despite the rate cut, Republicans could potentially stage a comeback by November, the analysts warned.
In conclusion, the analysis indicates that the upcoming election outcome is closely tied to economic conditions, with potential shifts in favor of either candidate depending on the economic performance leading up to the election. It is crucial for investors and voters to monitor these developments closely to make informed decisions.