By Khalid Abdelaziz and Aidan Lewis
As the seasonal rains end in Sudan, the army intensifies airstrikes and mobilizes allied fighters, escalating the conflict after nearly 18 months of war. This uptick in fighting exacerbates an already dire humanitarian crisis, with famine confirmed and over 10 million people displaced - one fifth of the population. U.N. agencies struggle to deliver aid, making the situation even more challenging.
According to a senior Western diplomat, the conflict is expected to see more fragmentation, with various armed groups getting involved, further complicating the situation. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been dominant, but the army recently launched a major offensive in Khartoum to strengthen its position.
The army has replenished its weaponry and trained new volunteers, while the RSF vows a "hot winter" for its rivals. Both sides receive material support from foreign backers, deepening the conflict in Africa's third largest country by land area.
The conflict began in April 2023 as a power struggle between the army and the RSF ahead of a planned political transition. The army gains ground in Khartoum, but the RSF retains control over key areas. Disease and starvation spread as the battle continues, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
Despite some diplomatic attention at the U.N. General Assembly, little progress has been made in stopping outside players from fueling the war. Both sides receive external support, further complicating the conflict.
Analysis and Impact on Investments
The escalation of fighting in Sudan has significant implications for investors and financial markets. As the conflict intensifies, the already dire humanitarian crisis could worsen, leading to further displacement and instability in the region. This could impact various industries, particularly those involved in aid and humanitarian efforts.
Investors should closely monitor the situation in Sudan and assess the potential risks to their portfolios. The conflict could lead to geopolitical instability, affecting global markets and investor sentiment. It is crucial to stay informed and adjust investment strategies accordingly to mitigate potential losses.
Overall, the escalation of fighting in Sudan highlights the importance of geopolitical risk assessment in investment decisions. By understanding the impact of conflicts on financial markets, investors can make informed choices to protect their assets and navigate volatile conditions.